Posted on February 14th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010
…SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY…
ALZ040>046-048>050-150600-
/O.EXB.KBMX.WW.Y.0005.100215T0500Z-100215T1800Z/
DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-RUSSELL-
PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SELMA…PRATTVILLE…FORT DEPOSIT…
HAYNEVILLE…WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…MONTGOMERY…TUSKEGEE…
UNION SPRINGS…PHENIX CITY…TROY…EUFAULA
159 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY [...]
Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Weather, Winter Weather | No Comments »
Posted on February 13th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
Check out the snowfall forecast from the NAM…An inch into south Alabama!?
The raw snowfall output suggests a 1″ snow into much of Wilcox, Dallas, Autauga, and Chilton counties, with 2″ or so into Coosa.
Keep in mind, this isn’t a forecast, it’s simply raw model output.
I don’t completely buy this. I believe temperatures will likely be [...]
Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Winter Weather | 2 Comments »
Posted on February 11th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
Thursday 9:29pm
…just reviewing the 0z NAM, which has completed its cycle. Here are some QPF amounts (liquid) for some cities in south/central Alabama:
Evergreen: 0.97″
Montgomery: 0.62″
Troy: 0.81″
Andalusia: 0.94″
Assuming even a low liquid to snow ratio, these totals would indicate the possibility of 4-7″ for places like Montgomery and Troy, with even more for places like Evergreen [...]
Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Weather, Winter Weather | 2 Comments »
Posted on February 11th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
10:53AM
12z GFS came in farther north, now in much better agreement with the Canadian and its own ensembles. We have adjusted our snowfall projections accordingly:
Again, as mentioned this morning, I expect someone over in west central or southwest Alabama to wind up with close to a half-foot of snow.
*NOTE… If the trend northward continues, we [...]
Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Weather, Winter Weather | 4 Comments »
Posted on February 11th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
…06z NAM and GFS remain rather consistent with the idea of accumulating snow over the southern half or so of Alabama…
…the 0z GFS ensembles almost unanimously show a far heavier snowfall for our area. Because of this ensemble output and the consistently heavier look of the Canadian, I’ve upped the totals slightly in our accumulation map:
…still looks [...]
Filed under: Weather | 1 Comment »
Posted on February 10th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
New model runs are hot off the presses…Confidence continues to grow in accumulating snow in Alabama. The following charts show total precip amounts between now and Friday evening. For our area, almost all of this would fall as snow. Here’s the new NAM:
Note the sharp cutoff over central Alabama. If the NAM is correct, Montgomery [...]
Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Winter Weather | 1 Comment »
Posted on February 10th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
* 12z Data Review: The 12z (morning) run of the NAM is in, and I have reviewed it thoroughly. It continues the concept of a northward shift in the track of the low pressure, which favors accumulating snow for much of south and central Alabama.
I see no real reason to change the map below, given [...]
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Posted on February 10th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
here’s my best stab at an accumulation forecast for the system on Friday. This forecast will almost certainly change – it is very preliminary in nature. Check back for updates as more data is reviewed throughout the day and week…
Filed under: Montgomery, Weather, Winter Weather | No Comments »
Posted on February 9th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
Snow or No? The last couple of runs of our two main American computer models have trended farther south with the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. This means two things – colder and drier. This is a good news/bad news situation for those looking for snow. The colder air is obviously [...]
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Posted on February 5th, 2010 by Josh Johnson
Rain Ending… The back edge of the large mass of heavy rain continues to slide eastward into Georgia. Our drying trend will continue through the afternoon, with temperatures topping out between 55-60 in most Alabama communities.
A Weekend Cooldown? Saturday and Sunday will both feature cooler conditions. Tomorrow will feature a mostly cloudy sky, breezy conditions, [...]
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