Another Chilly Day: Sunshine will dominate the sky today, but temperatures will still run on the chilly side. Afternoon highs will do well to get out of the 40s in central Alabama, while the Wiregrass and south Alabama will struggle into the lower 50s. A stiff north wind will make it feel [...]

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An interesting link in the email inbox this morning…Thanks to Charles Jones of Prattville for passing this along:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9987740

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Here’s my best stab at an almost impossible forecast…

First – areas south of US 80 will probably see rain and nothing but rain.  This includes Greenville, Andalusia, Troy, Eufaula, Evergreen, and Dothan.
For most of our area, including Montgomery, Selma, Wetumpka, Prattville and Auburn – mostly rain, only a small chance of a few flurries mixing in [...]

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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

…SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY…

ALZ040>046-048>050-150600-
/O.EXB.KBMX.WW.Y.0005.100215T0500Z-100215T1800Z/
DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-RUSSELL-
PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SELMA…PRATTVILLE…FORT DEPOSIT…
HAYNEVILLE…WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…MONTGOMERY…TUSKEGEE…
UNION SPRINGS…PHENIX CITY…TROY…EUFAULA
159 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY [...]

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Check out the snowfall forecast from the NAM…An inch into south Alabama!?

The raw snowfall output suggests a 1″ snow into much of Wilcox, Dallas, Autauga, and Chilton counties, with 2″ or so into Coosa.
Keep in mind, this isn’t a forecast, it’s simply raw model output.
I don’t completely buy this.  I believe temperatures will likely be [...]

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Thursday 9:29pm
…just reviewing the 0z NAM, which has completed its cycle.  Here are some QPF amounts (liquid) for some cities in south/central Alabama:
Evergreen: 0.97″
Montgomery: 0.62″
Troy:  0.81″
Andalusia: 0.94″
Assuming even a low liquid to snow ratio, these totals would indicate the possibility of 4-7″ for places like Montgomery and Troy, with even more for places like Evergreen [...]

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10:53AM
12z GFS came in farther north, now in much better agreement with the Canadian and its own ensembles.  We have adjusted our snowfall projections accordingly:

Again, as mentioned this morning, I expect someone over in west central or southwest Alabama to wind up with close to a half-foot of snow.
*NOTE… If the trend northward continues, we [...]

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…06z NAM and GFS remain rather consistent with the idea of accumulating snow over the southern half or so of Alabama…
…the 0z GFS ensembles almost unanimously show a far heavier snowfall for our area.  Because of this ensemble output and the consistently heavier look of the Canadian, I’ve upped the totals slightly in our accumulation map:

…still looks [...]

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New model runs are hot off the presses…Confidence continues to grow in accumulating snow in Alabama.  The following charts show total precip amounts between now and Friday evening.  For our area, almost all of this would fall as snow.  Here’s the new NAM:

Note the sharp cutoff over central Alabama.  If the NAM is correct, Montgomery [...]

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*  12z Data Review: The 12z (morning) run of the NAM is in, and I have reviewed it thoroughly.  It continues the concept of a northward shift in the track of the low pressure, which favors accumulating snow for much of south and central Alabama.
I see no real reason to change the map below, given [...]

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