VALID 102113Z - 102245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF WW 20 IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND SHOULD INCREASE IN
AREAS EAST OF WW 20 WHERE A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS TAKEN PLACE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW APPROACHING 60 F FROM
THE BOOTHILL OF MO SWD TO NERN LA ALONG THE MS RIVER. DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING...A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOW PRESENT ACROSS ERN AR AND NRN LA WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 100O TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR TEXARKANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY MOVING EWD INTO MORE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP NEAR FT SMITH SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 60 KT SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY STEEP WHICH WILL
MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INITIALLY BE ISOLATED BUT MAY INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY IN THE 00Z TO 03 TIMEFRAME.

Filed under: Weather