A Snow Time-Out
It seems like every meteorologist across the state is excited about the possibility of wintry weather as we head into Monday and Tuesday across parts of Alabama and Georgia — me included! However, our winter weather won’t last forever — as we head into the month of March, temperatures will begin to gradually warm up thanks to a higher sun angle, the Artic Oscillation, or AO, being forecast to go more positive (which usually means intrusions of Arctic air into the Southeast is limited), and the first day of Spring is on March 20th.
Typically, the months of March, April, and May are associated with our severe weather season. As a meteorologist, I hate to use the term “season” when it comes to severe weather. We know that tornadoes and severe thunderstorms can happen during any month of the year here in the Deep South, and the term “season” may imply to some people that there is a period of time where we don’t have them!
Either way, the spring months are usually when we do see an increase in thunderstorm and tornado activity here in the southeast. A company called VORTEK (part of Engineering Analysis Inc., based in Huntsville) has relased an interesting report detailing the most tornado prone cities for the month of March. their results are below:
|
RANK |
CITY |
ACF (%) |
DISTURBED LAND AREA (ACRES) |
|
1 |
Little Rock, AR |
0.02453 |
197 |
|
2 |
Atlanta, GA |
0.02369 |
191 |
|
3 |
Indianapolis, IN |
0.01852 |
149 |
|
4 |
Birmingham, AL |
0.01748 |
141 |
|
5 |
Macon, GA |
0.01683 |
135 |
|
6 |
Jackson, MS |
0.01360 |
109 |
|
7 |
Shreveport, LA |
0.01169 |
94 |
|
8 |
Montgomery, AL |
0.01016 |
82 |
|
9 |
Columbus, GA |
0.00901 |
72 |
|
10 |
Columbia, SC |
0.00889 |
71 |
|
11 |
Chattanooga, TN |
0.00826 |
66 |
|
12 |
Topeka, KS |
0.00734 |
59 |
|
13 |
Huntsville, AL |
0.00721 |
58 |
|
14 |
Philadelphia, PA |
0.00708 |
57 |
|
15 |
Madison, WI |
0.00648 |
52 |
|
16 |
McAllen, TX |
0.00586 |
47 |
|
17 |
Mesquite, TX |
0.00537 |
43 |
|
18 |
Springfield, IL |
0.00519 |
42 |
|
19 |
Pembroke Pines, FL |
0.00498 |
40 |
|
20 |
Hollywood, FL |
0.00490 |
39 |
Here’s an explainer of their data directly from their press release:
“The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents the average fraction of land area within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during March for the 59-year period from 1950 through 2008. The Disturbed Land Area represents the average number of acres of land within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during March for the same 59-year period. ”
And the list of tornado prone states for the month of March:
|
RANK |
STATE |
ACF (%) |
AREA (ACRES) |
| 1 | Georgia |
0.01211 |
4487 |
| 2 | South Carolina |
0.01121 |
2159 |
| 3 | Arkansas |
0.01101 |
3672 |
| 4 | Mississippi |
0.01086 |
3260 |
| 5 | North Carolina |
0.00646 |
2013 |
| 6 | Alabama |
0.00620 |
2011 |
| 7 | Kansas |
0.00471 |
2464 |
| 8 | Tennessee |
0.00422 |
1111 |
| 9 | Illinois |
0.00341 |
1215 |
| 10 | Indiana |
0.00336 |
772 |
| 11 | Louisiana |
0.00318 |
888 |
| 12 | Oklahoma |
0.00302 |
1327 |
| 13 | Missouri |
0.00266 |
1171 |
| 14 | Minnesota |
0.00200 |
1020 |
| 15 | Kentucky |
0.00198 |
504 |
| 16 | Texas |
0.00175 |
2934 |
| 17 | Iowa |
0.00167 |
598 |
| 18 | New Jersey |
0.00152 |
72 |
| 19 | Nebraska |
0.00132 |
650 |
| 20 | Florida |
0.00087 |
299 |
From their press release: “The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents the average fraction of land area within the boundaries of the state disturbed by tornadoes during March for the 59-year period from 1950 through 2008. The Disturbed Land Area represents the average number of acres of land within the boundaries of the state disturbed by tornadoes during March for the same 59-year period.”
Interesting to note the Alabama cities on the first table, including Birmingham, Montgomery, and Huntsville (and the Georigacities of Atlanta, Macon, and Columbus!). Alabama and Georgia both were found pretty high up on the list of states most at risk as well.
It’s just another reminder that our areas can be greatly affected by severe thunderstorms and tornadoes… and that everyone should have a plan in place to protect life and property in these events as we head into the severe weather “season”!
Derek Kinkade | Meteorologist | WTVM/WXTX | Columbus, GA | dkinkade@wtvm.com
Filed under: Birmingham, Columbus, Huntsville, Montgomery




There is no way Madison, Wisconsin could be 15th on a MARCH tornado ranking! We are talking practically CANADA! May & June – yes, but March – this has to be an anomaly.