A Snow Time-Out

It seems like every meteorologist across the state is excited about the possibility of wintry weather as we head into Monday and Tuesday across parts of Alabama and Georgia — me included!  However, our winter weather won’t last forever — as we head into the month of March, temperatures will begin to gradually warm up thanks to a higher sun angle, the Artic Oscillation, or AO, being forecast to go more positive (which usually means intrusions of Arctic air into the Southeast is limited), and the first day of Spring is on March 20th.

Typically, the months of March, April, and May are associated with our severe weather season.  As a meteorologist, I hate to use the term “season” when it comes to severe weather.  We know that tornadoes and severe thunderstorms can happen during any month of the year here in the Deep South, and the term “season” may imply to some people that there is a period of time where we don’t have them! 

Either way, the spring months are usually when we do see an increase in thunderstorm and tornado activity here in the southeast.  A company called VORTEK (part of Engineering Analysis Inc., based in Huntsville) has relased an interesting report detailing the most tornado prone cities for the month of March.  their results are below:

RANK

CITY

ACF (%)

DISTURBED LAND AREA (ACRES)

1

Little Rock, AR

0.02453

197

2

Atlanta, GA

0.02369

191

3

Indianapolis, IN

0.01852

149

4

Birmingham, AL

0.01748

141

5

Macon, GA

0.01683

135

6

Jackson, MS

0.01360

109

7

Shreveport, LA

0.01169

  94

8

Montgomery, AL

0.01016

  82

9

Columbus, GA

0.00901

  72

10

Columbia, SC

0.00889

  71

11

Chattanooga, TN

0.00826

  66

12

Topeka, KS

0.00734

  59

13

Huntsville, AL

0.00721

  58

14

Philadelphia, PA

0.00708

  57

15

Madison, WI

0.00648

  52

16

McAllen, TX

0.00586

  47

17

Mesquite, TX

0.00537

  43

18

Springfield, IL

0.00519

  42

19

Pembroke Pines, FL

0.00498

  40

20

Hollywood, FL

0.00490

  39

Here’s an explainer of their data directly from their press release:

“The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents the average fraction of land area within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during March for the 59-year period from 1950 through 2008. The Disturbed Land Area represents the average number of acres of land within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during March for the same 59-year period. ”

And the list of tornado prone states for the month of March: 

RANK

STATE

ACF (%)

AREA (ACRES)

  1 Georgia

0.01211

4487

  2 South Carolina

0.01121

2159

  3 Arkansas

0.01101

3672

  4 Mississippi 

0.01086

3260

  5 North Carolina 

0.00646

2013

  6 Alabama 

0.00620

2011

  7 Kansas 

0.00471

2464

  8 Tennessee 

0.00422

1111

  9 Illinois

0.00341

1215

10 Indiana

0.00336

  772

11 Louisiana

0.00318

  888

12 Oklahoma

0.00302

1327

13 Missouri

0.00266

1171

14 Minnesota

0.00200

1020

15 Kentucky

0.00198

  504

16 Texas

0.00175

2934

17 Iowa

0.00167

598

18 New Jersey

0.00152

  72

19 Nebraska

0.00132

  650

20 Florida

0.00087

  299

From their press release:  “The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents the average fraction of land area within the boundaries of the state disturbed by tornadoes during March for the 59-year period from 1950 through 2008. The Disturbed Land Area represents the average number of acres of land within the boundaries of the state disturbed by tornadoes during March for the same 59-year period.”

Interesting to note the Alabama cities on the first table, including Birmingham, Montgomery, and Huntsville (and the Georigacities of Atlanta, Macon, and Columbus!).  Alabama and Georgia both were found pretty high up on the list of states most at risk as well. 

It’s just another reminder that our areas can be greatly affected by severe thunderstorms and tornadoes… and that everyone should have a plan in place to protect life and property in these events as we head into the severe weather “season”!

Derek Kinkade | Meteorologist | WTVM/WXTX | Columbus, GA | dkinkade@wtvm.com

One Response to “A Snow Time-Out”

  1. There is no way Madison, Wisconsin could be 15th on a MARCH tornado ranking! We are talking practically CANADA! May & June – yes, but March – this has to be an anomaly.

Leave a Reply