It looks like some snow may be in our future for Monday night into Tuesday morning.  The GFS had been holding back on the snow chances by keeping the low supressed in the Gulf of Mexico.  Keeping with tradition this season, the GFS has finally come on board with the Canadian and Euro.  The 00z GFS is now indicating a good supply of moisture with the low tracking right along the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  I’m holding with a 40% snow chance right now, but that probability is likely to increase if we get a few model runs holding onto this track.  Based on data tonight, we could see significant Winter weather event with several inches of snowfall across much of North and Central Alabama.  I’m including the 00z GFS 850mb temp and 6hr precipiation output for midnight Tuesday morning. I think I’ll have a better handle on the situation as we get within range of the mesoscale models.  Right now, my biggest concern will be the thermodynamic profiles.  It’s possible we could see surface temps and a relatively warm ground as a limiting factor with this event.  Lots of variables to iron out right now – we will keep you posted.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Filed under: Birmingham, Rain, Regions, Winter Weather