The challenge with next week’s potential snowfall forecast comes with the position of the Gulf low.  The GFS has performed poorly with the last several Winter systems so most meteorologists are not buying its recent trend of keeping the low farther south in the Gulf.  The Canadian GEM and the European ECMWF have performed the best with our recent snow events.  Both of those models are indicating a low that will “hug” the Gulf coast.  If this track does verify, we would be looking at the possibility for a significant snowfall for the Southeast.  The next question is thermodynamic profiles.  Will it be cold enough for a significant snowfall?  There are many variables to iron out with this one.  The image included in this post is the 500mb output from the ECMWF for Tuesday AM.  Notice the low in the Northern Gulf – this position is much farther north the GFS has been indicating. 

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Filed under: Birmingham, Regions, Winter Weather