*  12z Data Review: The 12z (morning) run of the NAM is in, and I have reviewed it thoroughly.  It continues the concept of a northward shift in the track of the low pressure, which favors accumulating snow for much of south and central Alabama.

I see no real reason to change the map below, given the output I’ve seen.  I loaded the NAM vertical profiles into BUFKIT, a tool that allows us to see the model output in a three dimensional visualization.  Using an 8:1 liquid to snow ratio, the NAM is printing out the following snow totals:

Montgomery:  2.3″

Meridian:  1.9″

Evergreen:  4.5″

Dothan:  3.6″

Again, I will caution you, this is raw output from the NAM, as displayed through BUFKIT.  This is not our official forecast, but it does jive well with the map we’ve drawn below, for the most part.

The one number that jumped out at me was the Dothan amount – I’m not sure they will be cold enough at the surface to support that much snow, but we shall see.

The other big impression I saw was from the profile at Evergreen.  There, the 12z NAM shows a pretty nice amount of lift in the snow growth region – even hinting at the possibility of some heavy snow banding associated with some thundersnow.  We shall see if that verifies, but the idea is on the table.

Now, we wait on the 12z GFS – it’s our other main American forecast model.  We will have that data in house within the hour and will post again around lunchtime with additional information…

I fully expect winter storm watches to be issued for almost all of the southern half of Alabama later this afternoon, pending the 12z GFS.

Filed under: Montgomery, Regions, Winter Weather