If you watched my forecast last Friday, I mentioned the possibility of snow or at least a wintry mix late week.  The forecast models were hinting the possibility.  Now, it’s a bit more of a hint.  The GFS is now showing a low forming in the Gulf of Mexico.  These lows give us a classic overrunning type setup and when combined with Arctic air – SNOW.  I know it’s only Sunday night and we’ll have to watch for a few more model runs.  The GFS tends to be a little too moist when looking this far out.  The exact track of the low will play a huge role in when/how much/where/if snow forms.  As you can tell, there are some unanswered questions!  I’m attaching the model output from the 12z GFS.   The first image shows all critical thickness lines  supporting snowfall all the way to Montgomery.   The second image shows precipitation and the 540 thickness line (notice to the south of Bimingham by noon Friday).  The 540 thickness line is sometimes called the rain/snow line.

At this point, I’d stay close to the forecast over the next several days.   Based on today’s data – we would see measurable snowfall Friday.   We all know these forecasts tend to be highly inaccurate especially this far out.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Filed under: Birmingham, Regions, Winter Weather