Since yesterday people have been asking me if it’s going to snow on Christmas or Christmas Eve.  At this point, I’m not going to say a White Christmas is impossible – it’s just not likely.  We are talking about a forecast that is over 200 hours out.  I’ve missed snow forecasts within 8 hours of an event with everything looking perfect meteorologically for a heavy snow and what did I get “heavy rain.”  There are so many ingredients that have to be present for snow to occur and here in Alabama…there’s almost always something lacking.

The latest GFS model runs are moving the majority of the precipitation out of the area before the really cold air moves in.  It’s a bit faster than yesterday.  It’s still indicating some moisture around as the cold air builds in.  Personally, I think the GFS is over-doing the moisture – something it almost always does this far out.

Based on the current data and my experience, I’d say we could possibly see some flurries or light snow in the Tennessee Valley…but for most of us a cold rain Christmas Eve and perhaps Christmas Day.

This is a forecast we’ll have to monitor and once we’re in range of the NAM and a few other mesoscale models I think we’ll have a better handle on the situation.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Filed under: Birmingham, Rain, Regions, Weather Facts