Here’s what I’m thinking for Tuesday.  First of all, it’s a day we need to watch closely.  The morning will begin with rain.  During the afternoon, temperatures will climb into the mid 60s as a warm front lifts to the north.  As far north as Huntsville, temperatures could reach 60.  That’s a bit warm for December.  I’ve included a surface map showing the main reason for the chance of severe storms and it’s a tightly wound low that will track into the northeast.  The wind flow around the deeping low is the reason for the wind shear.  The low will also pull in some warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.

The above graphic indicates highest tornado potential.  Another key ingredient Tuesday will be instability.  That’s the limiting factor.  However, this time of year even weak instability combined with high wind shear can result in rotating thunderstorms.  Some of the more reliable mesoscale models are bringing the highest instability in our western counties – Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Lamar, Walker, Marion, Fayette, and Walker.

So, here’s my thinking.  We’ll see rain (some heavy) tomorrow morning.  We might see a break in the rain during the afternoon.  The main event will likely occur during the evening – probably after 8pm and lasting until maybe after midnight.  I do expect the storms to weaken as they move into our eastern counties.  By the way, these will be very fast moving storms – so if we get a tornado warning there will not be a lot of lead time.

We’ll keep you posted through the day tomorrow.  We’ll keep you posted both on-air and online.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist

Filed under: Birmingham, Rain, Regions, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes