There will be tornadic storms in the Southeast Wednesday and possibly early Thursday morning.  The question is where.  At this point, I’d say the best chances will be South Alabama, South Georgia, Florida’s panhandle, and maybe even the Carolinas.  However, if we get any instability across Central Alabama – the weather will get active very quickly.  These high shear/low instability situations can sometimes catch you by surprise.

We will need to monitor Wednesday closely for the possibility of some quick spin-up tornadoes.  I will say convection to the south of us should limit our severe weather threat.  One of the purposes of this blog is to give you some insight and even a behind the scenes look at the forecast process.  My experience as a meteorologist tells me when you have helicity this high – you can’t let your guard down.  I have included NAM model output displaying a shear bullseye over Alabama. The best chance for severe storms (if we’re going to see something) would be Wednesday afternoon.  We’ll keep you posted.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Filed under: Birmingham, Montgomery, Regions, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Weather