Changes are coming fast and furious to Alabama’s weather in the week ahead.  Rain, a few strong storms, a big cooldown, and even a few snow flurries are all possible between now and the weekend.  Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes of it:

SEVERE WEATHER? There are some indications that we could deal with a bout of strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.  A warm front will lift northward late Tuesday night, in response to a developing area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  That warm front will likely generate a large mass of rain and embedded thunderstorms.

Then, as the surface low wraps up and moves north-northeastward, winds will shift around to the southeast during the day on Wednesday.  This will likely lead to a modest influx of unstable, thunderstorm-friendly air into Alabama, especially areas south of a line from Evergreen to Auburn.  With plenty of wind shear, the risk of a cool-season severe weather episode is present.

A Big Factor:  The forecast track of the surface low – the 18z GFS takes the surface low from near Livingston, AL to Huntsville.  This would mean the greatest risk of severe weather in our state would likely be in east and southeast Alabama, with an even higher risk of severe weather in Georgia.  The timing of all of this also leads me to believe the risk of severe weather is highest into central and eastern Georgia.

Another big issue will be the warm front’s northward progress into Alabama Tuesday night.  If a large, persistent mass of rain sets up north of the warm front, that could keep the front farther south.  This would limit the instability return into Alabama and diminish the risk of strong storms.

Bottom Line: Expect rain, heavy at times, to begin Tuesday night and last through much of the day on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms will be involved, and some of them could be severe.  The greatest risk of severe weather will come south of a line from Evergreen to Auburn, and the highest probability of severe storms is between 4am and noon on Wednesday.  Some Alabama cities could see in excess of 2″ of rain.

MAJOR COOLDOWN, SNOW FLAKES? Much cooler air will surge into Alabama late Wednesday and into Thursday.  Thursday looks to be a raw, windy day, with temperatures doing well to hit the lower 50s.

The next system in this active southern stream setup begins to form late Friday in the central Gulf of Mexico.  With cold air in place, there are indications that we could squeeze out a few snow flurries Friday night into Saturday morning.  Moisture is VERY limited, and surface temperatures should stay at or just above freezing, so there are no major concerns here at all.  At this point, this looks like much more of a novelty item than any significant weather situation.

The big story in all of this is the change to colder weather.  High temperatures on Friday will stay in the 40s for almost all of Alabama, and a breezy north wind will make it feel even colder.  The cold temperatures will linger Saturday, before we begin to slowly warm things up over the weekend.

More on the blog throughout this wild weather week!

Filed under: Weather